As New Year’s Eve approaches, the 2025 Polymarket prediction market also launches, allowing traders to bet on events over the next 12 months.
With the excitement of the 2024 election, sports betting became the top category for 2025 predictions. In the site’s 2025 section, traders appear to be most focused on the 2025 NFL Draft, with the top bet at $465,998. Contract participants monitor quarterback prospects and broader scouting developments, reflecting the highest level of activity on the platform.
However, other prediction markets for 2025 show a significant decrease in volume. The next largest contract was for the Bitcoin price outlook, which raised just $28,640. There is a 70% chance that the price will reach $120,000 and a 55% chance that it will fall to $70,000. As we enter the new year, Bitcoin is trading at around $94,000, with a 94% chance of the price returning to $100,000 within the next 12 months.
The 2025 Federal Reserve action contract has a stake of $27,507, with an 11% chance of zero rate cuts, a 19% chance of one 25 basis point rate cut, and a 19% chance of two rate cuts. is 29%. A separate contract measures the possibility of a rate hike, currently at 15%. Taken together, these figures reveal divergent views on the pace of potential policy change ahead of a new government.
The odds of Vladimir Putin leaving office by 2025 are 13%, while traders are also keeping an eye on the chance of a ceasefire between Russia and Ukraine at 71%. is. In the Middle East, there is a 27% chance that Prime Minister Netanyahu will step down, and a 44% chance that Iran’s supreme leader will step down from power. These contracts suggest continued but modest demand for hedging related to geopolitical changes.
Alarmingly, there is a 22% chance that a nuclear weapon will detonate by 2025, highlighting concerns about escalating tensions in multiple regions. However, even a trial explosion can qualify.
“For the purposes of this market resolution, the detonation of a nuclear weapon anywhere on Earth or in space is sufficient to trigger a “yes” resolution. This includes offensive use, nuclear testing, and accidental detonation. ”
These geopolitical contracts are tied to energy supply factors and the possibility of sanctions that can affect global commodity flows.
Corporate events are also popular. In the market that determines which companies will hold the largest market capitalization in 2025, NVIDIA has 26% and Apple has 36%.
In the stablecoin market, contracts regarding Tether’s possible depegging have a 16% success rate, while questions regarding Tether’s potential bankruptcy have a success rate of only 11%.
Polymarket’s largest gambling market
However, outside of specific markets in 2025, Polymarket’s most heavily traded markets are also still focused on sports. The Champions League market shows a UK win, with stakes at $699,410,841. The top teams are Arsenal at 14%, Liverpool at 18% and Manchester City close behind at 10%.
The NBA Championship contract is a close second at $410,909,837, with the Celtics holding a 26% chance. Another notable soccer market, the total amount for the Premier League winners is $341,757,688, with Liverpool having a 71% chance of winning and Arsenal having a 13% chance of winning.
In the NBA, the Eastern Conference champions earned $239,279,029 over the Celtics, 46% of the total.
The Cleveland Cavaliers are 16%.
Even without considering presidential elections, sports could become a major segment of the polymarket until 2025. But the cross-section of geopolitical and financial contracts collectively points to broader concerns about how leadership changes, monetary policy adjustments, and security concerns will evolve.
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